近30年北京自然历的主要物候期物候季节变化及归因.pdf

植物生态学报 2012, 36 (12): 1217–1225 doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2012.01217 Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology 近30年北京自然历的主要物候期、物候季节变化及 归因 * 仲舒颖 葛全胜 郑景云 戴君虎 王焕炯 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101 摘 要 根据中国物候观测网资料并结合气象观测数据, 重新编制了北京颐和园地区1981–2010年的自然历。通过与原自然 历比较, 揭示了北京物候季节变化特征, 分析了1963年以来物候季节变化的可能原因。研究发现: 与原自然历相比, 1981–2010年北京的春、夏季开始时间分别提前了2天和5天, 秋、冬季开始时间分别推迟了1天和4天; 夏、秋季长度分别延长 了6天和3天, 春、冬季长度则分别缩短了3天和6天; 各个物候期的平均日期、最早日期、最晚日期在春、夏季以提前为主, 在 秋、冬季以推迟为主; 且春、秋、冬季节内部分物候期次序也出现了不同程度的变化。春、夏、冬季开始日期前的气温变化 和秋季开始日期前的日照时数变化可能是北京颐和园地区物候季节变化的主要原因; 不同物种、不同物候期对气温变化的响 应程度不同, 导致了物候季节内各种物候现象出现的先后顺序发生变化。 关键词 北京, 气候变化, 自然历, 物候季节 Changes of main phenophases of natural calendar and phenological seasons in Beijing for the last 30 years * ZHONG Shu-Ying, GE Quan-Sheng , ZHENG Jing-Yun, DAI Jun-Hu, and WANG Huan-Jiong Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Abstract Aims Our objective is to reveal changes of main phenophases of natural calendar and phenological seasons and the reasons for this change. Therefore, we recompiled the natural calendar for 1981–2010 at the Summer Palace in Beijing and compared it to the natural calendar for 1963– 1982. Methods Based on the phenological data from Chinese Phenology Observation Network of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the meteorological data, we compiled a natural calendar (1981–2010) with phenophases of 19 plant speices, ice freeze-up and break-up dates for Kunming Lake. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to examine the relationships between change of phenological season and climatic drivers. Important findings In comparison with the original natural calendar, the first dates of phenological