股票市场心理研究 THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE STOCK MARKET.pptVIP

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE STOCK MARKET Werner De Bondt April 2003 OVERVIEW The challenge What is behavioral finance? Case study The quality of analysts’ forecasts VALUATION Value is about the future. The future is uncertain. ? The quality of judgment is critical. ?? FORECASTING? Economic fundamentals: Cash flows the opportunity cost of capital. ? The state of the market: The dynamics of crowd behavior. A full understanding of human limitations will ultimately benefit the decision-maker more than will na?ve faith in the infallibility of his intellect. ? Paul Slovic Journal of Finance 1972 What was forecasted did not happen. What happened was not forecasted. MYTHS OF THE TECHNOLOGY BOOM Tech companies generate breathtaking gains in economic productivity. The exponential growth will accelerate over time. Therefore, these firms are good investments. “There is no price too high for a good tech company. Prospects are more important than immediate earnings. Monopolies create unbeatable advantages. Tech companies are not subject to the business cycle. “..It is still fair to say that, on the whole, our eco-nometric models are at best very crude approxi-mations of the true economy. .. [these] models require large doses of judgment if they are to be useful to decision-makers. .. the strengths of intuitive forecasting complement the weaknesses of model-based prediction. ” Alan Greenspan 1990 WHAT IS BEHAVIORAL FINANCE? The study of financial decision-making with the help of concepts borrowed from psychology. ? Modern finance was conceived as a logical, normative model of an idealized decision-maker. It assumes self-interested utility maximization, rational expectations, and optimal information processing. Herbert Simon (1983) calls this approach “the Olympic model.” PEOPLE ARE HUMAN The logic of choice is not an adequate foundation for a descriptive theory of decision making. The deviations from the normative model are widespread, systematic, and fundame