商业应用统计英文版ch04.pptxVIP

Applied Business Statistics, 7th ed.by Ken BlackChapter 4ProbabilityLearning ObjectivesComprehend the different ways of assigning probability.Understand and apply marginal, union, joint, and conditional probabilities.Select the appropriate law of probability to use in solving problems.Solve problems using the laws of probability including the laws of addition, multiplication and conditional probabilityRevise probabilities using Bayes’ rule.ProbabilityProbability – probability of occurrences areassigned to the inferential process underconditions of uncertaintyMethods of Assigning ProbabilitiesClassical method of assigning probability(rules and laws)Relative frequency of occurrence(cumulated historical data)Subjective Probability (personal intuitionor reasoning)Classical ProbabilityNumber of outcomes leading to the event divided by the total number of outcomes possible P(E) = ne/N where N = total number of outcomes, and ne = number of outcomes in event EEach outcome is equally likelyApplicable to games of chanceObjective -- everyone correctly using the method assigns an identical probabilitySubjective ProbabilitySubjective Probability - Comes from a person’s intuition or reasoningSubjective -- different individuals may (correctly or incorrectly) assign different numeric probabilities to the same eventDegree of belief in the results of the eventUseful for unique (single-trial) experimentsNew product introductionSite selection decisionsSporting eventsStructure of ProbabilityExperiment – is a process that produces an outcomeEx: Rolling two six-sided dice and calculating their sumEvent – an outcome of an experimentEx: The sum is at least 10Elementary event – events that cannot be decomposed or broken down into other eventsEx: The first die is a sixSample Space – a complete roster/listing of all elementary events for an experimentEx: {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), …, (2,1), (2,2), …., (6,5), (6,6)}Trial: one repetition of the processEx: Roll the dice…Structure of ProbabilityMutuall