商业应用统计英文版ch15.pptxVIP

Applied Business Statistics, 7th ed.by Ken BlackChapter 15Time SeriesForecasting Index NumbersLearning ObjectivesGain a general understanding of time series forecasting techniques.Understand the four possible components of time-series data.Understand stationary forecasting techniques.Understand how to use regression models for trend analysis.Learn how to decompose time-series data into their various elements and to forecast by using decomposition techniques.Understand the nature of autocorrelation and how totest for it.Understand autoregression in forecasting.Time-Series ForecastingTime-series data: data gathered on a given characteristic over a period of time at regular intervalsTime-series techniquesAttempt to account for changes over time by examining patterns, cycles, trends, or using information about previous time periodsNaive MethodsAveragingSmoothingDecomposition of time series dataTime Series ComponentsTrend – long term general direction.Cycles (Cyclical effects) – patterns of highs and lows through which data move over time periods usually of more than a year.Seasonal effects – shorter cycles, which usually occur in time periods of less than one year.Irregular fluctuations – rapid changes or “bleeps” in the data, which occur in even shorter time frames than seasonal effects.Time-Series EffectsTime Series ComponentsStationary time-series - data that contain no trend, cyclical, or seasonal effects.Error of individual forecast et – the difference between the actual value xt and the forecast of that value Ft.Measurement of Forecasting ErrorError of the Individual Forecast (et = Xt – Ft) the difference between the actual value xt and the forecast of that value Ft.Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) - is the mean, or average, of the absolute values of the errors.Mean Square Error (MSE) - circumvents the problemof the canceling effects of positive and negative forecast errors. Computed by squaring each error and averaging thesquared errors.Measurement of Forecasting E