最新以汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见.pdfVIP

Vol. 29, No. 4 FORECASTING 2010 4 以汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见 1 2 , ( 1. 同济大学 经济与管 学院, 中国科技管 研究院, 上海 200092; 2. 开姆尼茨工业大学 工厂规划与工厂经 营研究所, 开姆尼茨 09125) : 本文将环境因素纳入技术预见范畴, 将其与可持续发展 论相结合,提出绿色技术预见的概念,进行系 统的 论分析和案例验证,探索以新能源汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见方法体系应用情景分析法进行 技术需求分析, 得出 55项待选技术, 归为代用燃料汽车技术电动汽车技术混合动力汽车技术燃料电池汽车 技术共性技术清洁柴油汽车技术等六大类通过两轮大规模德尔菲调查, 最终遴选出 CVVT发动机技术 VVTi发动机技术等 12项关键技术, 最后给出我国新能源汽车产业的发展路径 : 绿色技术预见;可持续发展;新能源汽车产业; 情景分析法;德尔菲 : G303 : A : 2010) Green Technology Foresight on the Developm ent ofAutom obile Industry 1 2 LIU Guangfu, C EN Xiaoli ( 1. S chool of E conom ics and M anagem en,t ChineseA cademy of ST M anagemen ,t Tongj i University, Shanghai 200092, China; 2. D e artm ent of Factory P lann ing and Factory O erations, Chemnitz University of T echnology, Chem nitz 09125, Germany) Abstract: This paper gave out the concept ofgreen technology foresight and carried out the green technology foresight on automobile industry, in orderto achieve a strategic outlook for the future development trends ofnewenergy automobile in China. Based on Scenario technique, itadvanced six categories ofautomobile technology ( .i e. alternative fuel, electric auto, hybrid power, fuel cell, clean dieseland generic technology) covering 55 technologies and reduced them to 12 key ones via statistical analysis ofDelphi survey, which includes CVVT engine technology, etc.. Based on this, it fig ured out the developmentpath of newenergy automobile industry in China. K ey words: green technology foresight; sustainability; newenergy automobile industry; scenario; delphi