UWEXTENSION奶制品市场分析.pptVIP

Farm and Risk Management Team Cooperative Extension – Ag and Natural Resources Dairy Price Risk ManagementMilk Market Outlook Last Update: Mar. 1, 2005 * Monthly Basis * Q: What’s a Good Price? A: It All Depends….. * Outlook Information Milk Production Report Issued by NASS (USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service) mid-month covering previous month Milk cow numbers, Milk per cow, and total milk production Monthly data for 20 selected states representing about 85 % of U.S. milk production Quarterly data for all states * NASS Milk Production Report: January ‘05 * Milk Cows and Milk per Cow * Outlook Information (Cont.) Milk/Feed Price Ratio Pounds of 16% dairy ration equal in value to one pound of milk Published around the first of the month as part of NASS monthly Agricultural Prices Dairy Product Stocks Commercial and government-held inventories of butter, cheese (by category) and NDM Published as part of NASS monthly Cold Storage Report * * * * * Outlook Information (Cont.) Dairy Product Production Monthly factory production of all major dairy products, U.S. and major states Published by NASS around the first of the month for second preceding month Dairy Product Prices Weekly prices and weights used to calculate all Federal Order Class prices Covers Butter, Block and Barrel Cheddar Cheese, Nonfat Dry Milk, and Dry Whey Issued by NASS Friday am; covers week ending the previous Saturday * US Production of Major Manufactured Dairy Products, Jan-Dec 2004 v. Year Earlier * * * Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Cash or Spot Markets Grade A butter (MWF) Block and barrel cheddar cheese (M-F) Grade A and extra-grade nonfat dry milk (M-F) Auction markets – bids and offers with sale when a bid is filled or an offer is accepted Reported price changes with a sale, an unfilled bid, or an uncovered offer Thin markets: sales represent only a small fraction of production Reference markets: prices for off-market contractual sales tied to CME prices * Outlook Informat