中国 美容 SPA馆 现状分析 麦肯锡PPT培训课件.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *E * * *E *E *E *E *E *E *E *E *E *E * 102~ * CHINA RETAIL SKINCARE REVENUE WILL GROW AT 12% TO 69 BILLION HKD BY 2012 AND TO 107 BILLION HKD BY 2018 Source: Euromonitor, McKinsey Global Institute China retail market Assumptions Growth from 2008 – 2012 is based on Euromonitor forecast Down market case based on reduction in GDP growth from by 15% during 2009-2011 Growth from 2013 – 2018 is based on real disposable income growth +10-12% +18% China retail market revenue historical and forecast HKD billions Current CAGR 08-12 CAGR 13-18 Standard market Down market MUCH OF GROWTH WILL COME FROM 2/3 CITIES WHO DEMAND MORE MASS PRODUCTS * Tier 3 and other countries/towns Source: MGI; Euromoney; team analysis China skin care and color cosmetic estimated revenue 2007 v.s. 2012 (2007= 39 billion; 2012= 69 billion) HKD billion 2007 2012 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Premium HKD 200+ Masstige HKD 100 - 199 Mass HKD 99 Tier 1 city Tier 2 city Tier 3 city* 9% 36% 55% 2012 share of revenue 62% 25% 13% 29.2 China retail market 4% 18% 10% Share of growth GROWTH IN THE MASS TO MASSTIGE MARKET HAS CAUSED SKINCARE PRICES TO LAG OVERALL RETAIL PRICES IN CHINA Source: National Bureau Statistics; interviews * * * Price index, base = 100 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Skin care and color cosmetic price index vs. retail index Real, Percent China retail market The price in skincare cosmetic has been declining The increase in overall retail index and decrease in skincare and cosmetic index indicate a strong growth in mass and masstige segment FOR CHINA, SUPERMARKETS ARE STILL THE PREDOMINANT DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL FOR SKINCARE PRODUCTS * Include pharmacies, drugstores and spa Source: Euromonitor * * * * * * * 03 * * 04 * * 05 * * 06 * * * * * * * * CAGR 02-07 25% 13% 32% 15% 12% 20% Channels of cosmetics and toiletries, HKD billions China retail market 7% SKINCARE COMPETITION IS FAIRL