第九章 抽样估计.pptVIP

Chapter 9 Sampling Estimation 第九章 抽样估计 Chapter Nine Sampling Estimation 内容提要 Learning Objectives 估计介绍 点估计与区间估计 总体均值的区间估计 总体成数的区间估计 样本容量计算 Thinking Challenge 假设你对全班学生（总体）的平均随身携带金额感兴趣，如何才能得知？ Suppose you’re interested in the average amount of money that students in this class (the population) have on them. How would you find out? 9.1 估计介绍 Introduction to Estimation 统计方法 Statistical Methods 9.2 估计的过程 Estimation Process 估计的过程 估计的过程 估计过程 估计方法Estimation Methods 9.3 点估计 Point Estimation 估计方法Estimation Methods 点估计 Point Estimation 提供单一取值 Provides Single Value 基于1个样本的观测 Based on Observations from 1 Sample 未说明该值与未知总体参数的接近程度 Gives No Information about How Close Value Is to the Unknown Population Parameter 例：样本均值x = 3 即为未知总体均值的点估计量 估计未知总体参数Unknown Population Parameters Are Estimated 9.4 区间估计 Interval Estimation 估计方法Estimation Methods 区间估计 Interval Estimation 提供取值范围 Provides Range of Values 基于1个样本的观测值 Based on Observations from 1 Sample 说明与未知总体参数的接近程度 Gives Information about Closeness to Unknown Population Parameter 用概率术语说明 Stated in terms of Probability 了解确切接近程度需要知道未知的总体参数 Knowing Exact Closeness Requires Knowing Unknown Population Parameter 例： 95%信心未知总体均值介于50-70 Unknown Population Mean Lies Between 50 70 with 95% Confidence 9.5 区间估计的要素 Key Elements of Interval Estimation 区间估计的要素 样本统计量 置信区间 置信度 9.5.1 区间估计的要素——样本统计量Key Elements of Interval Estimation 9.5.2 区间估计的要素——置信区间Key Elements of Interval Estimation 总体均值的置信区间Confidence Limits for Population Mean 众多样本有相同置信区间 Many Samples Have Same Interval 众多样本有相同置信区间Many Samples Have Same Interval 众多样本有相同置信区间Many Samples Have Same Interval 众多样本有相同置信区间Many Samples Have Same Interval 众多样本有相同置信区间Many Samples Have Same Interval 9.5.3 区间估计的要素——置信度Key Elements of Interval Estimation 置信度 Confidence Level 未知总体参数落在置信区间内的概率 Probability that the Unknown Population Parameter Falls Within Interval 表示为 Denoted： (1 - ?) ?又称“显著性水平”，是参数未落在置信区间内的概率 ??Is Probability That Parameter Is Not Within Interval 典型值为 Typical Values Are 99%, 95%, 90%