Transformation of the US energy landscape：美国能源景观改造.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 * Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2013 Reference Case Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal 2011 24% 13% 19% 42% 30% 16% 17% 35% Natural gas $15 Carbon Fee Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 22% 27% 16% $25 Carbon Fee Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal 34% 23% 38% 4% Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines while diesel demand increases * U.S. transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Projections History 2011 60% motor gasoline E85 jet fuel CNG/LNG 11% 13% 4% 29% 47% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 2% pipeline fuel 3% 4% other 4% diesel 22% 1% Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 * renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 other advanced legislated RFS in 2022 biodiesel net imports cellulosic biofuels corn ethanol RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7) Domestic resource dynamics Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 * Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in production Adam Sieminski, Georgetown Energy and Cleantech Conference November 15, 2013 * Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Note:?Dry sha