copula函数在多变量洪水联合分布中的应用分析word格式论文.docxVIP

AbstractMultivariate joint probability distribution is a common method to process frequency analysis of hydrological multivariate characteristic attributes and combinatorial calculator of encountered flood events. As a new method, Copula theory has the strong flexibility and wide applicability when solving hydrological multivariate joint distribution.This paper constructed the joint distribution of two hydrological variables and applied this distribution to probability of annual maximum flood occurrence time and the flood regional compostion. F inally sum up the regularity of the occurrence time and the scale of flood and a conditional expectation of flood regional compostion, which would provide a new train of thought for flood analysis and calculation. The main content of this article is as follows:（1） After collecting domestic and overseas relevant literature, managed tograsp the hydrological status quo and progress of the study of multivariate joint distribution, and summarized the advantages of Copula method compared with traditional methods.（2） Elaborated the basic concept of Copula Theory、correlation analysis andparameter estimation, then discussed the optimal selection problem of the Copula function from the qualitative aspect and quantitative aspect.（3） Introduced the orientation data and its common distribution types to thisarticle, and then expounded the Von Mises distribution, at last emphasize the parameter estimation of the unimodal and bimodal mixture of Von Mises distribution.（4） After determining the marginal distributions of the annual maximum floodscale and its occurring time, then gave an approach to find the optimal Copula function, finally established the joint distribution modal of two variables of annual maximum flood with using this best Copula function.（5） Applied the above model to the study of Yichang’s flood data, andestablished the joint distribution of annual maximum flood peak and its occurring time、the joint distribution