股票估值：从理论到实践1精选.ppt

估值不是科学，而是艺术。它是说服的过程，即买主与卖方谈判的过程 估值具有不确定性。 股票价格的形成就是一个拍卖价。出价最高者，即最乐观者得到股票，但他有可能出价太高。过于保守的投资者可能出价太低，而失去机会。 * * * * * 考试结果的4种情况 1、你答对了，老师也判你对 2、你答错了，老师也判你答错了 3、你答错了，但老师判你对，那么恭喜你，你太走运了 有时你的确会如此走运 4、最冤的情况是你答对了，但老师却判你答错了 在我们的市场里常常会出现这种情况 * 1999年，美国遇到了空前的大牛市，当时标准普尔“500” 指数上涨21％，巴菲特却亏损20％！从1995年到1999年，推动美国股市上涨最重要的动力是网络和高科技股票的猛涨。而巴菲特却拒绝投资高科技股票，继续坚决持有可口可乐、美国 运通、吉列等传统行业公司股票，结果在1999 年牛市达到最高峰时大败给市场。 在股东与众人惶惑指责之时，巴菲特却在致股东的信中坚定地解释了自己长期投资的理念，他始终相信股票价格绝对不可能无限期地 超出公司本身的价值。结果证明，巴菲特是正确的。后来，网络科技股泡沫破灭，2000 年开始连续三年美股市分别大跌9.1%,11.9%,22.1%,累计跌幅超过一半，而同期巴菲特的投资业绩却上涨10%. * 纽约证券交易所的熊市界定是：跌20%，持续6个月以上；新兴市场的标准是跌幅超过30%，持续6个月以上。 * * To see why, consider the consequences in the long term of a firm whose earnings grow 3% a year forever, while its dividends grow at 4%. Over time, the dividends will exceed earnings. On the other hand, if a firms earnings grow at a faster rate than dividends in the long term, the payout ratio, in the long term, will converge towards zero, which is also not a steady state. * After all, dividends represent the only cash flow from the firm that is tangible to investors. Estimates of free cash flows to equity and the firm remain estimates and conservative investors can reasonably argue that they cannot lay claim on these cash flows. The second advantage of using the dividend discount model is that we need fewer assumptions to get to forecasted dividends than to forecasted free cash flows. To get to the latter, we have to make assumptions about capital expenditures, depreciation and working capital. To get to the former, we can begin with dividends paid last year and estimate a growth rate in these dividends. Finally, it can be argued that managers set their dividends at levels that they can sustain even with volatile earnings. Unlike cash flows that ebb and flow with a company’s earnings and reinvestments, dividends remain stable for most firms. Thus, valuations based upon dividends will be less volatile over time than cash flow based valuations. 2、资本性支出 股权资本投资者通常不能将来