基于系统动力学的中国通货膨胀形成机制分析-analysis of the formation mechanism of inflation in china based on system dynamics.docxVIP

山东财经大学硕士学位论文 Abstract i  PAGE 2 摘 要 通货膨胀是普遍存在的经济现象，也是影响当前我国经济运行的主要因素。稳 定物价是一个国家宏观调控及货币政策的主要目标之一。传统的通货膨胀形成机理 有需求拉动型、成本推动型、输入型通货膨胀等。随着经济全球化，影响经济运行 的因素及这些因素之间的交互机制更为复杂，尤其是各种因素对通货膨胀的影响， 传统经济学理论已无法全面描述，系统动力学逐渐成为当代经济研究的主要方法及 范式。 本文运用系统动力学模型，从系统科学的角度对影响我国通货膨胀内部根源进行 分析，提出通货膨胀系统是由经济发展子系统、存贷款子系统、财政收支子系统、国 际收支子系统等构成的复杂多重反馈系统。运用系统动力学 Vensim 软件，建立了通 货膨胀系统的因果反馈模型，揭示了影响通货膨胀的主导因素，进而建立通货膨胀系 统的结构流图和方程，对通货膨胀系统动态的定量分析，通过调整相关参数进行仿真 和预测，并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。 全文共分为五章。第一章为导论，阐述了全文的选题背景和意义，回顾总结国内 外学者对通货膨胀的研究成果，介绍了文章的研究方法、主要内容和创新点。第二章 介绍了系统动力学的基本原理，以及分析了系统动力学研究通货膨胀的必要性和可行 性。第三章构建通货膨胀系统的因果反馈模型。第四章阐述通货膨胀系统动力学模型 的研究步骤及检验程序，最后运用仿真结果做出预测。第五章提出针对我国通货膨胀 实际情况的政策建议，从而实现我国经济的可持续发展。 关键字：通货膨胀 系统动力学 反馈 仿真  Abstract Inflation is the world widespread economic phenomenon, but also an effect on our countrys economic operation. Price stability and control inflation is a national macro control objectives. The traditional inflation formation mechanism have needs, cost about the type, imported inflation, etc. As the global economic integration, the impact of economic operation of the factors and the relationship between these factors is more complex, especially of various factors on the effect of inflation. The traditional economics theory is unable to fully describe. System dynamics gradually become the foremost field of contemporary economic research. In this paper, the system dynamics model, from the point of view of system of effect on our countrys inflation internal root cause analysis. Inflation system is put forward by economic development subsystem, loan subsystem, financial revenue and expenditure subsystem, and international balance of payments subsystem a complex multiple feedback system. By system dynamics Vensim software, based on inflation causal feedback system, so as to reveal the influence model is the main factor of inflation. Through the establishment of inflation system structure flow chart and equation, the inflation for dynamic system, adjust the quantitative analysis of the related parameter