商业决策技术知识课件 10quantitative methods Chapter 10 Forecasting Ⅱregression.pptVIP

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商业决策技术知识课件 10quantitative methods Chapter 10 Forecasting Ⅱregression.ppt

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商业决策技术知识课件 10quantitative methods Chapter 10 Forecasting Ⅱregression.ppt

Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers3rd Edition;Learning Objectives;Correlation vs. Regression;Types of Relationships;Types of Relationships;Simple Linear Regression Model;Linear component;(continued);The simple linear regression equation provides an estimate of the population regression line;Least Squares Method;;b0 is the estimated average value of Y when the value of X is zero b1 is the estimated change in the average value of Y as a result of a one-unit change in X;Using the regression equation;;Sample Data for House Price Model;Graphical Presentation;;;;;;Interpolation vs. Extrapolation;Further statistical evaluation of the regression equation;;;The coefficient of determination is the portion of the total variation in the dependent variable that is explained by variation in the independent variable The coefficient of determination is also called r-squared and is denoted as r2;r2 = 1;Examples of Approximate r2 Values;Examples of Approximate r2 Values;;Standard Error of Estimate;;Comparing Standard Errors;Inferences About the Slope;Comparing Standard Errors of the Slope;;;House Price in $1000s (y);Inferences about the Slope: t Test Example;Inferences about the Slope: t Test Example;Inferences about the Slope: t Test Example;Prediction Interval for an Individual Y, Given X;Estimation of Individual Values: Example;Estimating a trend using regression;The Multiple Regression Model;Multiple Regression Equation;Example: 2 Independent Variables;;;;;Coefficient of Multiple Determination;Adjusted r2;Shows the proportion of variation in Y explained by all X variables adjusted for the number of X variables used (where n = sample size, k = number of independent variables) Penalize excessive use of unimportant independent variables Smaller than r2 Useful in comparing among models;;F Test for Overall Significance;Regression Statistics;;;;Regression Statistics;d.f. = 15-2-1 = 12 = .05 t?/2 = 2.1788;Assumptions of Multiple Regression;Residual Analysis for Equ