股票外汇技术分析英文版-16课件.pptVIP

Fibanacci Ratios Patterns Thousands of patterns have been catalogued Double Bottom, Head Shoulder, Flags, Pennants, etc. All are anecdotal or within the probability of chance Tune your TV to an unused channel and stare at the screen intently I guarantee you will see patterns formed out of pure noise If seeing is believing, check out /optical.htm Very interesting optical illusions Wave Synthesis Sinewaves are the primitives to synthesize more complex waves wave = SIN(F*T) - SIN(2*F*T)/2 + SIN(3*F*T)/3 Momentum Functions 1. Momentum can NEVER lead the function 2. Momentum is always more disjoint (noisy) Moving Averages 1. Moving Averages smooth the function 2. Moving Averages Lag by the center of gravity of the observation window 3. Using Moving Averages is always a tradeoff between smoothing and lag Relating Lag to the EMA Constant An EMA is calculated as: g(z) = a*f(z) + (1 - a )*g(z - 1) where g() is the output f() is the input z is the incrementing variable Assume the following for a trend mode f() increments by 1 for each step of z has a value of “i” on the “i th” day k is the output lag i - k = a *i + (1 - a)*(i - k - 1) = a *i + (i - k) - 1 - a *i + a *(k + 1) 0 = a *(k + 1) - 1 Then k = 1/a -1 OR a = 1/(k + 1) Relationship of Lag and EMA Constant a k (Lag) .5 1 .4 1.5 .3 2.33 .25 3 .2 4 .1 9 .05 19 Small a cannot be used for short term analysis due to excessive lag Concept of Predictive Filters In the trend mode price difference is directly related to time lag Procedure to generate a predictive line: Take an EMA of price Take the difference ( delta) between the price and its EMA Form the predictor by adding delta to the price equivalent to adding 2*delta to EMA Simple Predictive Trading System Rules: Buy when Predictor crosses EMA from bottom to top Sell when Predictor crosses EMA from top to bottom Usually produces too many whipsaws to be practical Crossover