文文献： 与伊拉克战争的经济后果The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq.pdfVIP

The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq William D. Nordhaus, Yale University October 29, 2002 Revised Introduction The drums of war are beating as the United States marches, two steps forward and one step backward, toward war with Iraq. The Congressional Resolution authorizing the use of force describes U.S. policy as “to defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq and enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.”1 The major benefits of a successful war are reckoned to be disarming Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction and removing a leadership that is unrelentingly hostile to the United States. But what of the costs? Even asking such a question may be thought a sign of insufficient resolve at best and appeasement at worst. However, although cost estimates are often ignored when war is debated, most people recognize that the costs in dollars, and especially in blood, are acceptable only as long as they are low. If the casualty estimates mount to the thousands, if the war pushes the economy into deep recession or requires a large tax increase, and if the United States becomes a pariah in the world because of brutal attacks on civilian populations, then decision makers in the White House and the Congress might not post so expeditiously to battle. Given the salience of cost, it is surprising that there have been no systematic public analyses of the economics of a military conflict in Iraq. This essay attempts to fill the gap. It is recognized that the estimates here are virtually certain to be wrong, for the fog of war extends far beyond the battlefield to include forecasts of political reactions and economic consequences. However, as Keynes said, it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong. 1 H.J.Res.114 (October 2002)