外文文献：商业航空运输中系统安全风险评估的概率因果分析.pdfVIP

Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport James T. Luxhøj, Ph.D.; Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Rutgers University; 96 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854-8018 USA Keywords: Aviation Safety, Risk Management Abstract Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes. Introduction Commercial air transportation in the United States is a complex array of many diverse, yet interrelated system components. There is a plethora of varied human, technical, environmental, and organizational factors that affect the performance of the National Airspace System (NAS). Through the years, numerous qualitative and quantitative approaches to aviation risk identification, modeling, and evaluation have been developed and have contributed in a seminal way to the understanding of aviation safety risk [