外文文献：多因素层次模糊油气勘探风险评估的综合评价模型的应用.pdfVIP

May 2008, Volume 7, No.5 (Serial No.59) China-USA Business Review, ISSN1537-1514, USA Application of multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in risk assessment of gas exploration GONG Yan-fen , PING Yu-lan (School of Economics and Management, Daqing Petroleum Institute, Daqing 163318, China) Abstract: This article classified gas exploration risk on the basis of the characteristics of oil-gas exploration investment projects, which are internal systems risk and external non-systemic risk. It described each classification specifically and introduced the basic principles and mathematical model of the multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment in detail, and then researched the conducts the risk of the gas exploration with examples. Key words : gas exploration; risk analysis; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 1. Introduction The gas exploration is a high investment, high risk and high return activity, its character is the intensity of its investment and the technology. The oil-gas exploration final results were affected by the condition of the subsurface geology, the technical management level of exploration, the crude price and other factors. At present, risk assessment has been used in the entire gas exploration process in the overseas oil gas companies. It assesses the economic benefits of the gas exploration objectively through this kind of dynamic risk assessment and adjusts each link of the exploration at any time to minimize the risks and maximize economic benefits under those conditions[1]. 2. The type of gas exploration risks Gas exploration risks