改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其对全国邮电业务总量预测-improved grey markov model and its prediction of the total amount of posts and telecommunications services in china.docxVIP

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改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其对全国邮电业务总量预测-improved grey markov model and its prediction of the total amount of posts and telecommunications services in china.docx

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改进灰色马尔科夫模型及其对全国邮电业务总量预测-improved grey markov model and its prediction of the total amount of posts and telecommunications services in china

AbstractAscientificandreasonablepredictionmodelisbeneficialtotheresearchofaphenomenon,andalsohasgreatsignificanceinmakingcorrectdecisions.ThisarticlemakesanalysisonthedataofnationalpostsandtelecommunicationsbusinessbasedontheGreyGM(1,1)model,andthencorrectthemodeltakingthemetabolismmethodintouse.BycombiningthecorrectedmodelandMarkovchain,thearticleputsforwardanewpredictionmodelcalledImprovedGreyMarkovModel.Thenewmodelprovidesamoresatisfactorypredictionresult,whichhasapromotioninbothprecisionandaccuracy.Thisarticleisdividedintofivepartsasfollows:Thefirstsectionbringsouttheproblemandstatesthemeaningandfunctionoftheresearch.Thebasicknowledgeofpostsandtelecommunicationsbusinessandseveralcurrentpredictionmethodsareintroducedinthispart.ThesecondsectiontalksaboutthedefinitionofMarkovprocess,transitionprobability,theclassificationanddecompositionofstatesandthebasicknowledgeofprecisionverification.ItalsodescribestheGreyGM(1,1)modelandtheresidualGM(1,1)model.ThethirdsectionexplainstheprincipleofGreyTransitionProbabilityMarkovmodelandGreyStatesMarkovmodel,andappliesthemintothepredictionofnationalpostsandtelecommunicationsbusinesstogetapreliminaryresult.TheresultshowstheGreyMarkovmodelhascertainfeasibility.Thefourthsectionmainlyintroducestwoimprovedmethods,oneofwhichismetabolism,andanotheristocombinemetabolismandresidualamendment.TheultimateexperimentalresultsshowthatthesetwoimprovedmodelscanbothgiveexactintervalofpredictiondataandthedataaremoreaccuratethanthenormalGreyMarkovmodelgives.Comparingthesetwoimprovedmodels,thelatterperformsevenbetterthantheformer.Thelastsectiongivesthesummaryofthispaperandtheprospectoftheresearchfield.Keywords:GreyGM(1,1)model,residualGM(1,1)model,Markovchain,Grey-MarkovresonanceAssociativeForecasting,postsandtelecommunicationsbusiness目录专用术语注释表.......................................................................................................................................................1第一章绪论.....................................................