新 疆农业投资与农产品对外贸易关系分析基于1991年—2011年数据的分析与检验-analysis on the relationship between agricultural investment and foreign trade of agricultural products in new xinjiang based on the analysis and inspection of data from 1991 to 201.docxVIP

新疆农业投资与农产品对外贸易关系研究基于 1991 年—2011 年数据的分析与检验摘 要农业投资与农产品对外贸易对新疆农业经济发展起着至关重要的作用。本文通过借鉴前人对于 农业投资及农产品对外贸易的研究理论，首先对农业投资、农产品对外贸易的相关定义进行界定， 并通过理论说明农业投资可以在技术、机构、规模三方面促进农产品对外贸易发展，同时农产品对 外贸易也可以促进农业投资的发展，二者之间是相互促进的关系；其次剖析新疆农产品对外贸易、 农业投资主体（财政支农、农户农业投资、农业贷款）的现状和影响因素；最后运用计量经济学模 型对新疆 1991—2011 年数据进行分析并进行经济学和统计学检验，结果显示财政支农、农业贷款对 农产品对外贸易有促进的作用，而农业投资没有通过检验。结合实际和实证的研究结果找出现实中 影响新疆农业投资与农产品对外贸易之间失调的可能原因是：财政支农投入规模不足、农业投资的 资金主要来自于政府财政拨款及农业贷款、农村经济主体融资需求满足低导致农业生产的支持力度 不够。并提出相应的对策建议是：努力扩大财政支农资金来源，加大财政支农力度；大力引进外商 投资新疆农业，加大投资力度；完善农村金融制度，加大贷款力度。关键词：农业投资；农产品对外贸易；分析与检验A Research of Relations between Xinjiang Agricultural Investment and Agricultural Products inInternational Trade---An Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 1991 to 2011AbstractAgricultural investment and agricultural products in international trade play a vital role in the development of Xinjiang agricultural economy. Researching theories from other researchers’ achievement about agricultural investment and agricultural products in international trade, this thesis firstly defines agricultural investment and agricultural products in international trade and explains that agricultural investment can promote the development of agricultural products in international trade in three aspect of technology, institution and scale according to theories. Meanwhile, agricultural products in international trade can advances the development of agricultural investment. Therefore, their relations are mutual promotion. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation and influencing factors of Xinjiang agricultural products in international trade and agricultural investment subject (financial support for agriculture, farmers investment and agricultural loans). Finally, it applies the econometrics model to analyze data from 1991 to 2011 and tests to economics and statistics. Results show that financial support for agriculture and agricultural loans have a positive effect on agricultural products in international trade, however, agricultural investment fails to