beach wizard development of an operational nowcast, short-term forecast system for nearshore hydrodynamics and bathymetric evolution文档.pdfVIP

Beach Wizard: Development of an Operational Nowcast, Short-Term Forecast System for Nearshore Hydrodynamics and Bathymetric Evolution Ad Reniers Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology Delft, The Netherlands Phone: (305) 421-4223 Fax: (305) 421 4701 Email: a.j.h.m.reniers@tudelft.nl Award Number: N000140510266 LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goals are to provide accurate and detailed predictions of nearshore hydrodynamics and bathymetric evolution using an advanced process-based model (Delft3D). Observations of dense remotely sensed and psarse in situ data will be assimilated to continuously improve model performance, and where the data are uncertain or absent, the model will be used to fill in the gaps and construct a more complete estimate of current or near-future conditions. OBJECTIVES The objectives of the proposed study are to: • Develop methods for estimating relevant Delft3D model inputs and outputs from airborne and shore-based video and radar observations • Develop and implement techniques to assimilate these data in Delft3D • Validate the assimilation model by hindcasting with the remote observations and sparse in situ data sampled from field experiments • Improve numerical model formulations to narrow error bands on model predictions • Generate nowcasts and forecasts of the nearshore environment APPROACH The approach is to develop an integrated nearshore modeling system that can be tested for a few sites where multiple information sources are available. Here we focus and the site at Palm Beach, Australia, which has a very short morphodynamic response time scale showing frequenct transitions of near alongshore uniform morphology to complex rip-channeld morphology within a perio