基于智能算法的改进中长期负荷预测模型分析-analysis of improved medium and long term load forecasting model based on intelligent algorithm.docxVIP

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基于智能算法的改进中长期负荷预测模型分析-analysis of improved medium and long term load forecasting model based on intelligent algorithm.docx

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基于智能算法的改进中长期负荷预测模型分析-analysis of improved medium and long term load forecasting model based on intelligent algorithm

IMPROVEDMID-LONGTERMLOADFORECASTINGMODELBASEDONINTELLIGENTALGORITHMABSTRACTChina’sPowerdemandnowadaysisfacedwithgreatuncertaintiesduetovariouscomplexfactors.Thetraditionalloadforecastingmodelbasedonfixedstructureandparameterscannolongermeetnewloadforecastrequirements.Soloadforecaststudiesaregraduallyfocusedontohowtoconsidervariousuncertaintiesandachieveintelligentforecasting.Thisthesisisintendedtotakeuseofintelligentalgorithm’sadvantagesoverhandlinguncertaintiesandadaptabilitytoimprovetheexistedloadforecastingmodels,i.e.traditionalsystemdynamicsforecastingmodelandvariable-weightcombinationforecastingmodel.Themaincontentofthisthesisisasfollows:1、First,itgivesabriefintroductiontotheexistedloadforecastingmodels,especiallythetraditionalsystemdynamicsforecastingmodelandvariable-weightcombinationforecastingmodel.Then,itdiscussestheintelligentalgorithm,i.e.GeneticAlgorithm(GA)andGroupMethodofDataHandling(GMDH)’sadvantagesoverimprovingthetraditionalloadforecastingmodels.Plus,theuncertaintytheoryisalsodiscussed.2、DuetoGA’sgreatefficiencyonstructuraloptimizationandparameterestimation,theimprovedSDmodelbasedonGAwasproposedtoavoidtraditionalSDmodel’sdeficiencyonadaptability,structure,andparametersensitivity.ItgreatlyexpandstheapplicationrangeofSDloadforecastingmodels.3、IntelligentcombinationforecastingmodelbasedonGMDHweightingmethodisproposedduetoGMDH’sefficiencyonnonlinearsystemmodeling.Itisagreatattemptofnonlinearvariable-weightingmethod.Furthermore,variable-weighterrorcorrectionmechanismisappliedtodealwithuncertaintiestoachieveflexibleandintelligentforecasting,thusisgoodexampleforthestudyofintelligentmid-longtermloadforecastingmodelingunderuncertainties.4、ThroughprogrammingwithVensimPLE5.0andMATLAB7.0,theexampleofChina’sregionalpowergridverifiesthefeasibilityoftheproposedmodels.Theloadforecastingresultsanduncertaintyanalysis(structureadjustmentandtechnicalprogress)ofthe12th5-yearplanperiodindicatestherapidgrowthoffutureregionalpowerdemandandfactor(technicalprogress)’spositiv