基于组合预测的mtomts混合模式生产计划研究与优化-research and optimization of mtom ts mixed mode production plan based on combination forecasting.docxVIP

AbstractWith the development of science technology and productivity, increasing competition of the market and the diversity of customer demand, the single production model of modern enterprise already can’t satisfy the demand of the market. Enterprises are facing many problems,such as how to meet the diversity demand of customers, rapid response to market, shorten the delivery time, improve production efficiency and product quality. With the rapid development of economic globalization, customer demand becomes individual and product update speed is more quicker.For MTO/MTS mixed enterprises, it’s very important to make a scientific and accurate market demand forecast and reasonable production planning control.This paper takes the MTO/MTS mixed enterprise as research object, it studies production demand forecasting, comprehensive production planning and the formulation of Job Shop Scheduling.Then the paper puts forward an optimization method by making some cases.The main contents are as follows:Firstly, this paper analyzes related demand forecasting methods, and discusses prediction accuracy of the linear regression, exponential smoothing method and gray forecasting by theoretical analysis and case comparison, the results prove that the gray prediction accuracy is better than the other two methods, at last in this basis, it makes a weighted combination of the three demand prediction methods, and it proves that the combination forecasting results are better than gray predictable results though an example.The prediction accuracy is improves further.After determining product varieties and output through demand prediction, an enterprise should rationally use production capacity and distribute enterprise resource in order to formulate aggregation production plan. The paper researches the supply management strategy of aggregation production plan for MTO/MTS mixed enterprises,and it analyze four strategies with chase strategy, overtime strategy, outsourcing strategy and equa