我国人口年龄结构的城乡居民储蓄效应分析.docVIP

我国人口年龄结构的城乡居民储蓄效应分析 - 1 - （湖南大学经济与贸易学院，长沙 410079） 5 摘要：本文基于 Diamond 理论构建个人生命分为三时期的世代交叠理论模型，并对 2003— 2013年度中国内地 31 个省级面板数据进行实证检验，分析了人口年龄结构变化对我国城乡 居民储蓄率的影响。结果显示：居民的储蓄习惯具有较强的稳定性，短期内居民储蓄率变 化不大；居民普遍对现有社保体系缺乏信心，农村等经济不发达地区尤其突出；城镇地区 实证结果与理论模型预估一致，农村地区实证结果与理论模型预估相悖，人口年龄结构的10 储蓄效应具有明显的城乡差异；这种城乡差异在东中西三大区域均有体现，中西部地区表 现得尤为明显。因而，政府部门应加速完善社保体系，减少不确定性。稳步提高民生性财 政支出比例，适当对农村地区进行政策倾斜，推进城乡均等化。 关键词：宏观经济学；年龄结构；居民储蓄率；城乡差异 中图分类号：F126.1 15 The Impact Analysis of Population Age Structure to Urban and Rural Household Savings in China ZOU Xiao Shi, Liu Zhi Zhong (School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University ChangSha 410079) 20 Abstract: Based on Diamond theory constructs three phase overlapping generation theoretical model, By using the panel data of 31 provinces in 2003—2013，this paper conducts an empirical study on the effects of population age structure change to China’s urban and rural household saving rate. The author finds that: the savings habits of residents have strong stability, household savings rate will not change too much in the short term; Residents generally lack of confidence to 25 the existing social system, especially in rural and other underdeveloped regions; The empirical results in urban areas is consistent with the theoretical prediction model, the empirical results in rural areas is contrary to the theoretical model estimates, savings effect of population age structure has significant urban—rural differences; This urban—rural differences are also reflected in the three major regions, most notably in the Midwest. Therefore, the government departments should 30 accelerate the improvement of the social security system, reduce uncertainty. Steadily increasing the proportion of people’s livelihood fiscal expenditure, appropriate implement policy tilt to rural areas, promote urban and rural equalization. Key words: macroeconomics；age structure；household savings rat；urban—rural diff