地表太阳辐照度毕业论文.docVIP

目 录 中文摘要 1 英文摘要 2 1 引言 3 1.1 前言 3 1.2 太阳辐射的简介 3 1.2.1 太阳与地球的运动规律 3 1.2.2 太阳辐射与大气层的影响 4 1.2.3 到达地面的太阳辐射 4 1.3 课题研究的意义与重要性 4 1.3.1 太阳辐射预测方法研究的理论意义 4 1.3.2 太阳辐射预测为太阳能利用工程提供重要资料 6 1.4 国内研究太阳辐射的现状 7 2 常用的模型与预测方法 8 2.1 常用的太阳辐射模型 8 2.2 预测方法的分类 9 2.3 常用的预测技术 9 2.4 本文研究的内容和目标 11 2.4.1 太阳辐射影响因素的研究 11 2.4.2 对太阳模型进行预处理与相关性分析 12 3 基于时间序列分析的短时间尺度太阳辐射模型研究 13 3.1 时间序列概述 13 3.2 时间序列分析的目的 14 3.3典型时间序列分析模型 15 3.4 ARMA模型 16 3.4.1 平稳时间序列的定义 16 3.4.2 平稳时间序列的模型 17 4 地表太阳辐射时间序列模型与建模(ARMA模型) 19 4.1 建模过程 19 4.算例分析 29 结论 32 谢辞 33 参考文献 34 附录 36 Abstract：With the increasing problem of world“Energy Crisis”，today, every country all over the world are emphasizing on the research work of energy conservation and new energy development，teeth and nail．Solar energy is a representative new energy which is abundant and clean．As the technology of utilization of solar energy develops，the need of solar data are increasing，the demand of precious are heightening，and the technique of forecast solar intensity in future are requiring further improving．Solar forecast can fill in the database and provide an important tool for solar energy application and new energy utilization．Meanwhile，an appropriate solar model is a key precondition of accurate load forecast for air conditioning systems．This paper aims to the deep research into the theories and methods of solar forecast． In this paper, the measured solar data is arranged in a chronological sequence, there is some correlation between them, it is not causality, but called correlation in Statistics. The ARMA model based on time series analysis can accurately simulate the target sequence contained in the relevant, and the form of the model is simple and practical, the time series analysis and simulation of the solar radiation has become a hot topic in the field of the solar technology, and gradually used for the study of power generation system design and analysis. To better understand the ARMA models, it should be done by the following steps, sequence