债务和去杠杆化.ppt

24 Exhibit 11 UK banks are highly exposed to the private debt of eurozone-crisis economies Net direct exposure1 to debt of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain Banks participating in ECB stress test $ billion 507 294 Sovereign Private sector 186 173 65 120 35 105 74 52 8 42 3 19 36 15 14 1 France United Kingdom Germany Spain2 Belgium Cyprus Denmark Nether- lands Italy2 1 Net direct exposure defined as gross cash long minus gross cash short. 2 Excludes exposure to domestic debt. SOURCE: European Banking Authority; McKinsey Global Institute UK households have reduced debt loads only slightly so far, with the ratio of debt to disposable income declining from 156?percent in 2008 to 146?percent in mid-2011. This level is still significantly higher than that of US households at the bubble’s peak. UK household debt has grown slightly, in absolute terms, since 2008. Residential mortgage lending has continued to expand, albeit slowly, and this new debt has been only partially offset by a ￡25?billion decline in consumer credit. We find that at the recent rate of deleveraging, the ratio of UK household debt to disposable income would not return to its pre-bubble trend for another decade.31 Slower household deleveraging in the United Kingdom can be attributed in part to the relatively small number of troubled mortgages that have progressed to foreclosure. That picture could change: the Bank of England estimates that up to 12?percent of all UK mortgages are in some state of forbearance; an additional 2?percent are delinquent.32 This implies that the United Kingdom may have about the same proportion of loans that are in some degree of difficulty as the United States has—14?percent of mortgages outstanding (Exhibit?12). The problem could deepen in the years to come, particularly if economic growth remains weak or interest rates rise sharply. Two-thirds of UK mortgages have floating interest rates, and monthly debt payments of UK households as a sha