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Chaos Theory and the Markets Elliott Fractals Global混沌理论和分形市场利奥特全球.ppt

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Chaos Theory and the Markets Elliott Fractals Global混沌理论和分形市场利奥特全球

July 10, 2004 Cornerstone Investors Club THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING Chaos Theory and the Financial MarketsWhy Do Fractals Matter ? Why Do Fractals Matter ? Fractals are important because they reveal a new mathematical discipline of study related directly towards the study of nature and the world This in turn offers a revolutionary breakthrough in our “comprehension of reality.” A scientific study or analysis to be valid must include fractals. Our Perception of Reality Uniform Rectangular Objects like Boxes and Buildings do not exist in nature. They are all man made. The world is not naturally smooth-edged rather it is filled with rough edges. Smooth shapes are the exception in nature. Yet we use a geometry that describes shapes rarely found in the real world. An Organized Approach to Chaos What is Chaos? Why Euclidean Geometry Doesn’t Work for Traders What are Fractals Market Applications Trading with Fractals Examples of Chaos Lightning Weather Patterns Earthquakes Financial Markets Social and Natural Systems Governmental and Financial Institutions Constant Bewilderment Chaos Theory is a way to describe or quantify nonlinear, random events or systems Analyze events or systems that are influenced by their own outcomes, taking on a life of their own Order and randomness can coexist allowing predictability Why is Chaos so Confusing? Euclidean Geometry assumes a symmetrical world Mountains are not cones Clouds are not spheres Coastlines are not circles Lightning doesn’t travel in a straight line Markets chop and correct The Texture of Reality Nature deals in non-uniform shapes and rough edges. There is an inherent similarity within the shapes yet one can not fully describe the patterns with traditional geometry and analysis. What has been missing from science is a method of describing the shapes and objects of the real world. Fractal Geometry Unlike Euclid’s Ideal Forms, the broken, wrinkled and uneven shapes found in nature are not smooth. For