金融市场技术分析道氏理论和趋势分析北京, 2011年9月6日441.pptVIP

趋势线 – 第二高点/低点…. SP 500 Pharmaceuticals A better trendline is often established after the 2nd low or high. Source: Updata, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL? service, Credit Suisse 内部趋势线 Source: CQG, Credit Suisse Markets can often spike through trendlines, and then subsequently re-hold. One solution is to ignore the “tails”. EUR/USD 内部趋势线 Source: Updata, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL? service, Credit Suisse But, sometimes irregular trendlines or pivot lines are often called internal trendlines. USD/BRL 市场信息 Source: CQG, Credit Suisse The breaking of an important trend can give as much information as a trend holding. The break of a 5-touch trendline that has been in existence for well over 3 years for USD/JPY proved a significant signal. 市场信息 Source: Updata, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL? service, Credit Suisse India Nifty DAX Once a trendline is established, a parallel is often drawn. Can enhance our trading opportunities: Location to take profit Counter-trend trade opportunities Market information 趋势通道 Source: CQG, Credit Suisse 趋势通道可用于所有时间框架 Source: CQG, Credit Suisse GPB/USD – 10 minute chart 趋势与趋势通道: 对数 vs 算术 Source: CQG, Credit Suisse Note, remember to use log scaling for Equity Commodity markets. This can have a dramatic impact on signals. WTI Crude - Log WTI Crude – Linear 也可应用回归分析 Source: Updata, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL? service, Credit Suisse Can be useful, but, is often backward looking. Similar application to a Bollinger Band. 回 撤 回撤 道氏理论认为，次生趋势在重新回归原趋势之前，价格回撤幅度一般为主要趋势的1/3 到2/3。 一旦高点/低点有望确定，就可以应用回撤百分点确定潜在的拐点区域。 但常用的方法是斐波拉契回撤 – 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% 趋势中的回撤目标 趋势延续目标 阻力位与支撑位 时机工具 斐波拉契回撤 如何确定回撤水平 在上升趋势当中: 确定反弹的高点 – A 确定反弹的低点 – B 测算B到A的垂直距离= C 用核心回撤百分比乘以C，将得到的数值从B中扣除 A = 10 B = 150 C = B-A = 140 38.2% retracement (X) A B X = 96.52 X = B – [38.2%(C) ] X = 150 – [(140/100)*38.2] X = 150 – [1.4*38.2] X = 96.52 斐波拉契回撤 10yr German Yield - Daily A B X In a downtrend A = 4.450 ; B = 3.417 C = A – B = 1.033 X = B + 38.2%(C) X = 3.417 + 0.394606 = 3.811606 Actual high =