Simulation - An-Najah National University一个纳贾赫国立大学模拟.pptVIP

* Simulation Technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system Frequently used DSS tool * Major Characteristics of Simulation Imitates reality and capture its richness Technique for conducting experiments Descriptive, not normative tool Often to solve very complex, risky problems * Advantages of Simulation 1. Theory is straightforward 2. Time compression 3. Descriptive, not normative 4. MSS builder interfaces with manager to gain intimate knowledge of the problem 5. Model is built from the managers perspective 6. Manager needs no generalized understanding. Each component represents a real problem component (More) * 7. Wide variation in problem types 8. Can experiment with different variables 9. Allows for real-life problem complexities 10. Easy to obtain many performance measures directly 11. Frequently the only DSS modeling tool for nonstructured problems 12. Monte Carlo add-in spreadsheet packages (@Risk) * Limitations of Simulation 1. Cannot guarantee an optimal solution 2. Slow and costly construction process 3. Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other problems 4. So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions 5. Software is not so user friendly * Simulation Methodology Model real system and conduct repetitive experiments 1. Define problem 2. Construct simulation model 3. Test and validate model 4. Design experiments 5. Conduct experiments 6. Evaluate results 7. Implement solution * Simulation Types Probabilistic Simulation Discrete distributions Continuous distributions Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique Time dependent versus time independent simulation Simulation software Visual simulation Object-oriented simulation * Visual Spreadsheets User can visualize models and formulas with influence diagrams Not cells--symbolic elements * Visual Interactive Modeling (VIS) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) Visual interactive modeling (VIM) Also called Visual interactive