6通货膨胀与失业.ppt

第六章 失业与通货膨胀 M15、17、22，CH18 第六章 失业与通货膨胀CH18 第一节 失业及其自然率水平（Mankiw15） 第二节 货币增长与通货膨胀（Mankiw17） 第三节 失业与通货膨胀（Mankiw22） 第一节 失业及其自然率水平 一、失业概述 二、失业的度量 三、失业的原因 一、失业概述 Categories of Unemployment The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories. The long-run problem and the short-run problem: The natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率 The cyclical rate of unemployment周期性失业率 一、失业概述 Natural Rate of Unemployment The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.指在没有货币因素影响下，劳动力市场和商品市场自发供求力量发挥作用时应有的处于均衡状态的失业率，也就是充分就业情况下的失业率 It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences. 一、失业概述 Cyclical Unemployment Cyclical unemployment refers to the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate. It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle. 失业率围绕正常失业率而波动，正常失业率称为自然失业率natural rate of unemployment。美国一般为自然失业率5.5％。 周期性失业：cyclical unemployment：失业率与自然失业率的背离。它是经济周期中的衰退或萧条时的需求下降而造成的失业 大多数西方经济学家认为存在4%－6%的失业率是正常而自然的，此时社会经济处于充分就业状态。 奥肯定律：阿瑟.奥肯对美国经验数据进行分析，发现增长率与失业变动之间存在下列公式所描述的关系： 失业率变动＝－0.5×（实际GDP增长率－3%） 二、失业的度量 Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month. The survey is called the Current Population Survey. 二、失业的度量 Based on the answers to the survey questions, the BLS places each adult into one of three categories: Employed Unemployed Not in the labor force The BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old. 二、失业的度量 A person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job. A person is unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, is looking for a job, or is waiting for the start date of a new job. A person who fits neither of these categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labor force. 二、失业的度量 Labor Force The labor force is the total number of workers, including both the e