Populating Quarterly Constant Price Supply and Use Tables with填充季度固定价格供应与使用表.ppt

Structure of Presentation Describe supply and use tables and their use in the estimation of GDP Introduce some key processes of GDP compilation: balancing, seasonal adjustment, chain-linking and aggregation Consider some of the interactions between these processes Describe development work in the UK Gross Domestic Product Main measure of economic activity and growth Can be measured in three ways: Output = Expenditure = Income or GDP(O) = GDP(E) = GDP(O) Supply = Demand: Domestic Production + Imports = Household Expenditure + Intermediate Consumption + Capital Formation + Exports + Change in Stocks GDP(O) = GDP(E) Domestic Production – Intermediate Consumption = Household Expenditure + Capital Formation + Change in Stocks + Exports - Imports GDP(I) = wages and salaries + profits Compilation and Balancing Each component can be measured separately, annually, quarterly or monthly Results in three different estimates of GDP Data confrontation exercise, known as ‘GDP balancing’ to reconcile these estimates Results in one ‘best’ estimate of GDP Supply and Use Tables Enables data reconciliation at a more disaggregated level: GDP(O) and GDP(E) by product GDP(O) and GDP(I) by industry ONS considering a breakdown into 369 products and 197 industries Supply and Use Table Example of an Input-Output Table Seasonal Adjustment Supply Use and Seasonal Adjustment Supply and Use tables need to be populated with seasonally adjusted series: for data validation facilitates the balancing analysis focus on final published outputs Prices Adjustment needed to take account of inflation in order to estimate ‘real’ economic growth Achieved by deflation – dividing the ‘current price’ series by a price index Need some way of weighting together different series – use prices, to generate constant price series combining different goods and services Relative prices change over time Chain-linking – generates chain volume measures BUT not additive Seasonally Adjusted Serie