财政政策的就业效应-基于面板协整的经验验证1978-2008-employment effect of fiscal policy - empirical verification based on panel cointegration 1978 - 2008.docxVIP

AbstractTosolvetheproblemofUnemployment,inflation(ordeflation),economicgrowthandtheinternationalbalanceofpaymentsisthegovernmentsofthemainmacroeconomicpolicygoals.Chinaasthemostpopulationofdevelopingcountries,thecurrentemploymentsituationandemploymentpressureisverysevere,justrelyonthepowerofmarketmechanismforsolvingtheemploymentproblemisnotreality.Whenthemarketcan’tplaytherole,therewillbeneedgovernmentintervention.Asthemaineconomicpolicy,Fiscalpolicyisoneoftheimportantpolicytoolstocontrolunemployment.Soresearchtherelationshipbetweenfiscalpolicyandemploymenthastheimportanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificance.Firstly,onthebasisofcomprehensivereviewoftherelevantdocuments,establishatheoreticalanalysisframeworkoffiscalpolicyandemploymentrelationship,asthetheoreticalbasisofempiricalresearch.Secondly,Basedonthe1978-2008,theprovincialdataofChinausingpanelunitroottest,cointegrationtestanderrorcorrectionmodel,analyzingtherelationshipofrevenueandemployment、Fiscalexpenditureandemployment、Fiscaldeficitandemployment.ComprehensiveevaluationofChinasfiscalpolicyeffectonemploymentprovidedtheoreticalbasisandempiricalsupportforareassessmentoffiscalpolicy.Researchresultsshowthatthereisalong-termequilibriumco-integrationrelationshipbetweenthegovernmentrevenues,thegovernmentconsumerspending,thegovernmentproductiveexpenses,fiscaldeficitandemploymentrespectively.Chinasfinancialincomeandemploymentexistsignificantnegativecorrelation;thegovernmentproductiveexpensesandemploymentexistsignificantpositivecorrelation,thegovernmentconsumerspendingonemploymentispositive,butnotthroughthesignificanttest;Fiscaldeficitandemploymentexiststhesignificantnegativecorrelation.Finally,accordingtotheempiricalresults,putforwardthecorrespondingpolicyimplication,hopingthatthesecountermeasureshavegoodfeasibilityandoperabilityandcanprovidereferenceforrelevantdepartments.Keywords:Fiscalpolicy;employment;PanelcointegrationIII目录摘要.................................................IIAbstract.................................