美国征收碳关税对中美贸易的经济效应分析——基于gtap模型的实证分析-an analysis of the economic effects of carbon tariffs imposed by the us on sino - us trade - an empirical analysis based on gtap model.docxVIP

摘要自《京都议定书》生效以来，由国际贸易引致的碳泄漏问题成为国际社会广泛关注的焦点，以法国等为代表的附件1国家甚至以此为由，拟向来自非签约国的进口商品征收碳关税。美国亦计划于2020年对来自中国的进口商品征收碳关税，无疑这将直接影响中美贸易以及两国经济的发展。鉴于此，本文首先利用投入产出法测算出中国对美出口贸易中各行业产品的隐含碳排放量，进而使用GTAP模型对美国拟向高碳排放产品的进口征收碳关税的政策效果进行情景模拟，分析论证其对中美经济贸易的影响。研究结果表明，中国对美出口各行业产品中，隐含碳排放量较高的工业制成品行业集中在金属产品制造业、化学工业、非金属矿物产品制品业、其他制造业以及机械设备制造业。若美国对这些行业产品征收碳关税，会直接造成其进口商品国内价格上涨，进口量减少，社会福利增加，但随着税率的逐步提高将造成社会福利的净损失，贸易平衡增加，贸易条件改善但幅度有限。与此同时，碳关税政策将对中国经济造成显著的负面冲击，使其高碳排放产品对美出口量下降，国际市场价格上升，GDP及社会福利减少，贸易平衡减少，贸易条件恶化，国际竞争力减弱。为规避这些不利影响，论文最后提出一些有益的政策建议。关键词：隐含碳；碳关税；GTAP模型；政策模拟IAbstractSincetheKyotoProtocolcameintoforce,theissueofcarbonleakagecausedfrominternationaltradehasdrawnwideconcern.ConsiderthecaseofFrancegovernmentintendstolevycarbontariffsonimportsfromnon-signatories.AnotherexamplecanbeprovidedbytheproposedpolicyintheU.S.governmenttoimposecarbontariffsonimportsfromChinain2020,whichwillundoubtedlyexertdirectandfar-reachingimpactonSino-Americantradeaswellaseconomicdevelopmentofbothcountries.Accordingtothis,theamountofembodiedcarbonemittedbyproducts,exportedfromChinatotheU.S.,wascalculatedbasedonInput-outputanalysisfirstlyinthispaper.AndthenbyimplyingtheGTAPmodel,thepolicyeffectsofAmericantaxationonhighcarbon-emittingproductsimportedfromChinaweresimulated,andtheinfluenceonSino-Americantradeandeconomicwasobtained.Theresultsshowthatthehighembodiedcarbonemissionsofindustrialmanufacturedgoodsindustriesconcentratedinmetalproductsmanufacturing,chemicalindustry,non-metallicmineralproductsindustry,othermanufacturing,machineryandequipmentmanufacturingindustry.TheanalysisoftheGTAPmodelresultsupportstheconclusionthatthecarbontariffpolicythattheU.S.intendstoimplementwillraisethedomesticpriceofimportedgoods,reduceimports,increasetradebalance,improvetermsoftradebylimitedrangeandincreasesocialwelfare.Butwiththegradualincreaseinthetaxrate,itwillresultinanetlossofsocialwelfare.Atthesametime,itwillposepotentialthreatonChineseeconomybyreducingChineseexportsofhighcarbon-emittinggood,therebyboostingpricesininternationalmarket.Asaconsequen