人民币实际汇率变动对我国制造业出口贸易的影响——基于制造业技术水平分类分析-the influence of rmb real exchange rate changes on chinas manufacturing export trade - based on the classification analysis of manufacturing technology level.docxVIP

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人民币实际汇率变动对我国制造业出口贸易的影响——基于制造业技术水平分类分析-the influence of rmb real exchange rate changes on chinas manufacturing export trade - based on the classification analysis of manufacturing technology level.docx

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人民币实际汇率变动对我国制造业出口贸易的影响——基于制造业技术水平分类分析-the influence of rmb real exchange rate changes on chinas manufacturing export trade - based on the classification analysis of manufacturing technology level

AbstractThemoreflexibleRMBexchangerateformationmechanismreformwaslaunchedbyPeople’sBankofChinainJuly,2005,wheretheRMBexchangeratewasdecidednotonlybysingledollar,butthesupplyanddemandofthemarketofabasketofcurrencies.Afterthat,theRMBexchangerateconstantlyhitanewrecord.Asoneofthemostimportantindicatorsofacountry’sinternationaleconomicactivity,theexchangerate’svolatilityhasasignificantimpactonthebalanceofpaymentsanddomesticeconomicactivity,alsoincludingtheimportandexporttradeofacountryorregion.WiththenewrecordoftheRMBexchangerate,theexporttradeofChina’smanufacturingkeepsgrowingfast,andinthesametime,itismoreandmoreurgentforChina’smanufacturingtoindustrialupgrade.Thus,twoquestionsarecomingoutfollowingthat:whatisitsinfluenceonChina’smanufacturingincludinghigh-technology,medium-high-technology,medium-low-technologyandlow-technology?andistheinfluenceisdifferentfromthelevelofthetechnology?ThethesisbuildsanempiricalmodelofARDL-ECM(autoregressivedistributedlagerrorcorrectionmodel)basedonthedatafromJanuary,1997toApril,2011andmakesananalysisontheinfluenceofRMBrealeffectiveexchangerateontheexportofdifferenttechnicallevelofChina’smanufacturing.TheresultsshowthattheappreciationofRMBrealeffectiveexchangerateplaysamoreimportantroleontheexportofthemanufacturingthanthevolatilityofRMBrealeffectiveexchangerate.Furthermore,theexchangeratehasagreaterimpactonthelower-technologymanufacturingmorethanthehigher-technologymanufacturing.Abovethis,thepolicyrecommendationsisproposed,weshouldslowdowntheprocessofRMBappreciationtoprovidethemedium-low-technologyandlow-technologymanufacturingthebufferspace.ThethesishasacreativenessthattheindustrialupgradingofChina’smanufacturingisfirstlylinkedwiththevolatilityofRMBrealeffectiveexchangerateduetothemoreflexibleRMBexchangerateformationmechanismreform.TheimportanceandnecessityoftheindustrialupgradingofChina’smanufacturingisemphasizedfromthepointofviewoftheexchangerate,andthenthepolicyrecommendationsabouthowtomoveforwardtheRMBappreciationisproposed.Keywords:R