区域水灾风险评估的理论与实践研究-theoretical and practical research on regional flood risk assessment.docx

通过对这两个典型区域应用本文前部分构建的理论、筷型及指标体系涟行水灾风险的计算并得到与实际相符的系列结果!说明这套理论具有很强的适用性，完全可以用于其他类似的情况关键词，区领水宋风险e不确定性风险因素分析:不完备数据E风险估算信息扩散理论t马尔科夫锺素将卡罗模拟l长江流城!湖南省…TheoryaodPracticeforRegionalFloodRiskAss田smentLiuXinlilnsti阳也eofReso山ceScien饵，Keylabon秘优yofen田。但皿enta.lchangeandnaturaldi瞄阳，them皿由yofeducationofChinaBeijingNonnalUniversityAbstract=宵。Floodisoneof世盟副现sterswhichha吨high协quency阻dlosses，B仅:auseweCI町1也edls8steTso山uinsomeyearsof伽e缸M飞侃叫Iydecreasetheloos因也m唱hd恤恤扭挝血回理M恤yof也edisasteraff民国bodies.But他.-但创lityC睛tbed皿inishedillim刷.blyb侃auseof伽陆阳itof抱回econdi白n.likefunι80.wemust.阻howtogetthe阳喜剧组fegu?世唱3由efewestinves也，.ηbaseofthiskindofstudyis血kassessment.In飞lìewoftheresearchof伽.事m也alf100driskas回ssmentaIhomeandabr，侃.他回副isdiscusssomequestionof世黯仕leO!)and也a哥plicalionof也s陀.佣创画。oori里，四m回，0俭theory，themesni哩。.fsomewordssuchas皿町回国银阳回，晦咱阳盹havebeendiscussod，and也echarncterandso山田。f甜1euncerta.intyofthe?∞driskhasb院n回国】严d.句ly.From也.=酬Ch.we姐，.由.=回ntyof也e伽odriskCOn恒皿;...岱cIHlCI:rtaintyandv，笔四00.咽口协Thestoohasticuncerblintyiscau四dbythe00.副ntyofthenatw四.Th.ν尊阴山ICertaintyiscausedbype句lehavingnotknow耻happenin鸣曲dthedevelop吨oftheriskev刑clelUl民includinJ;:theunc四町m阳旦】町tingofmodels，esti:rr顶ti鸣。fparame钮dα刘泡阳也，(伽edata.Themeas旧ingandm由阳ffioo阴阳.，恤uldntbesame.Theme叫m剧时，(thestochasticuncer恼intyisbaseclon伊-obability，and也erneasuringrnethodof由evague00，叫aintyishasedonthepossibil注ytheor如onthesevi明白edefinitionofthefI∞driskh.b脆食缸d.Thisde?n划。但hastwosid囚，阳E臼oftheo!)，the曲erisof凰pplicat。且ItS}1I伽四izesanda例如.回senceof伽E旬∞driskTh.岛四毡阳。后随sofIhef100dri陆，...国.因_φl弘.d町rneimportant皿=factor，suchas组ωdJíSk也.ctor，fI∞drisks严ceand?oodrisktarget，havebo院回(.司!andtheiraffectsto伽mingofthefloodriskhavebeendiAquantityrne仙。d如analyzingfloodriskelem四hasbeencreatecl.lnthisrn础。d，throughriskelement地eotify，riskelernentcorrelationan创ysisandind句E岱dentanalysis，weC阻，.仙0000唱lati佣ω.ffi阳_，(目chriskelementandtheloos，thec。叩lingfunctionoftheriskelement:sandtheaffec也fromsomerepr唱senllltiveelementgrouJlltothe恤Thefloodriskestimationc町、oeptoalrnodelsontheviewofrnechanismofthe?ooc