法国农业信贷银行欧洲石油天然气行业研究报告.pdf

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法国农业信贷银行欧洲石油天然气行业研究报告.pdf

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法国农业信贷银行欧洲石油天然气行业研究报告

T EUROPE R O P June 2010 E R R O T C Oil Gas E S Oil stain: the pain and the gain The risk premium of the sector has already risen sharply Comparing the impact BPs accident has had on the oil and gas sector with the impact 9/11 had on insurance stocks, we found that the Equity Risk Premium of the oil and gas sector has already risen by 90bp i.e. 2/3 of the impact 9/11 had on the insurance sector. BP’s TP cut to 450p: claims fund and higher spill costs Our estimates for BP’s oil spill costs now stand at USD19bn in our base case and at USD49bn in our worst-case scenario. In our view, BP has the financial flexibility to pay the direct costs related to the oil spill response and to finance the claims fund. We do not expect BP to go bankrupt. At the current level, the stock is cheap. Risk of delays for new deepwater developments End May, the US implemente