法国农业信贷银行欧洲保险行业研究报告.pdf

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法国农业信贷银行欧洲保险行业研究报告.pdf

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法国农业信贷银行欧洲保险行业研究报告

T ITALY R O P May 2010 E R R O T C INSURANCE E S Recovery still elusive. Milano best value Non-life: better, but combined ratio above 100% in 2010E We reiterate our Underweight stance on Italian insurers. After the trough in non-life technical results in FY-09 (106% combined ratio), we expect an improvement in 2010E due to the 7% tariff hike in motor insurance. However, the latter is set to be largely offset by higher loss costs. We also see a material risk of further reserve strengthening. Hence, except for Generali, we do not expect the combined ratio to go below 100% until 2011E, with a very poor 2010E bottom-line. Ordinary financial income remains under pressure We expect a decrease in ordinary income in 10E (0.3% on avg.) due to the persistently low interest rates. This trend could hit Fondiaria- SAI, Unipol and Milano especially hard, as they have kept their key