基于LMDI模型山东省交通碳排放分析研究.docVIP

基于LMDI模型山东省交通碳排放分析研究 　　摘要：本文基于2000～2014年山东省交通运输业能源消费数据，计算山东省交通能源碳排放；构建山东省交通碳排放迪氏（Divisia）指数分解模型，运用LMDI算法分析山东省交通能耗碳排放驱动因素，得出结论：（1）山东省交通能源消费以油品为主，交通碳排放总量及强度呈现先升后降趋势。（2）基于LMDI分解结果，经济产出因素和能源强度因素是交通碳排放的主要正向驱动因素；产业结构因素是山东省交通碳排放的唯一负向驱动因素。建议山东省稳步优化当前产业结构，进一步降低山东省交通运输业能源强度；调整交通能源结构，提升电力和天然气比重；适当控制人口规模。 　　关键词：LMDI算法，山东省，交通碳排放，产业结构 　　中图分类号：X24 文献标识码：A DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-8256.2017.06.010 　　Research on the Transportation Carbon Emission in Shandong Province Based on the LMDI Model 　　HAO Qing， HUI Xiaoyang， YAN Guihuan， GUO Dongyan 　　（Ecology Institute of Shandong Academy of Science，Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Microbiology，Jinan 250014，Shandong，China） 　　Abstract： In this paper， transportation carbon emission in Shandong province was calculated based on the transportation energy consumption from 2000 to 2014. The Divisia index decomposition model of Shandong transportation carbon emission was established and the LMDI algorithm was used to analyze the driving factors of Shandong transportation carbon emission. And the conclusions ： （1） Oil products remain to be the major energy consumed in Shandong transportation system. The transportation carbon emission and intensity shows a trend from rise to decline. （2）Energy intensity and economic output prove to be two main positive driving factors for the Shandong transportation carbon emission based on the LMDI decomposition results. While the industrial structure turns to be the only negative driving factor for the transportation carbon emission. Its suggested the current industrial structure should be optimized steadily. Meanwhile， the energy intensity should be further reduced， and the transportation energy structure needs improving so as to increase the proportion of natural gas and electricity. Moreover， controlling the population would avail to the reduction of carbon emission. 　　Keywords： LMDI algorithm； Shandong province； Transportation carbon emission； Industrial structure 　　0 引言 　　随着汽车保有量的快速增加，交通