基于多级模糊综合评价法黄浦江各弯曲航道航行危险度评价.docVIP

基于多级模糊综合评价法黄浦江各弯曲航道航行危险度评价 　　摘要：为对黄浦江各弯曲航道的航行危险度进行评价，依据各弯曲航道航行环境的特点，运用结合专家调查法的层次分析法建立黄浦江各弯曲航道航行危险度评价指标体系，并获取各指标权重.通过各指标评价标准设定隶属度函数，运用多级模糊综合评价法对黄浦江各弯曲航道进行航行危险度评价.专家验证表明该危险度评价结果正确.该方法在船舶驾引人员制定内河弯曲航道船舶操纵预案或航道管理部门预报弯曲航道危险度等级等方面具有实用性. 　　关键词：黄浦江； 弯曲航道； 层次分析法； 多级模糊综合评价法 　　中图分类号：U675.58； U676.1； N941.5 文献标志码：??A 　　 　　Navigation risk evaluation for curved fairways in Huangpu River 　　based on multilevel fuzzy comprehensive assessment 　　YU Jingzhong??a， CHEN Jinbiao??a， XIAO Yingjiea,b， CHEN Tingting??a， SUN Chenggong??a 　　(a.Merchant Marine College; b.Engineering Research Centre of Simulation Technology, 　　Ministry of Education, Shanghai Maritime Univ., Shanghai 201306, China） 　　Abstract： In order to evaluate the navigation risk of the curved fairways in Huangpu River，according to the navigation environment characteristics of each curved fairway, the Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） combined with expert investigation method is applied to build the evaluation index system of the navigation risk of the curved fairways in Huangpu River, and the weight of each index is determined. Membership functions for each index are set by the evaluation criteria, and the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is introduced to evaluate the navigation risk of each curved fairway. The expert experiment shows that the evaluation result is correct. The evaluation method is applicable to draw up ship manoeuvring preplan in curved fairways in inland river for seafarers and pilots or to forecast the risk rank of the curved fairways for the channel administration departments. 　　Key words： Huangpu River； curved fairway； analytic hierarchy process； multilevel fuzzy comprehensive assessment 　　 　　0 引 言 　　近年来，在黄浦江的张华浜弯头、高桥弯头、陆家嘴弯头、董家渡弯头、鳗鲤嘴弯头、闸港弯头等发生多起船舶碰撞事故和险情.经有关专家研究发现，造成事故和险情的主要原因是：黄浦江航道弯曲、狭窄、水深不一，水流变化较大，一些弯头呈“瓶颈形”，水流速度快；进出黄浦江的船舶船型复杂，在弯头转向时不得不占用相邻航道；进出船舶之间因协调不当或未协调，在弯头处相遇后形成紧迫局面.在考虑船舶正常有效操纵(即无人为失误)情况下，本文收集并整理黄浦江各弯曲航道特点，运用模糊综合评价法对其进行航行危险度评价.在理论上验证黄浦江各弯曲航道的航行危险度，起到预测和评价弯曲航道航行安全风险的