基于政府参与信息通信技术标准扩散模型研究.docVIP

基于政府参与信息通信技术标准扩散模型研究 　　摘 要:政府行为能够对信息通信技术标准扩散产生直接和间接的影响,能够显著的影响到信息通信技术标准的市场潜力.通过对Bass模型进行优化,引入政府非恒定影响系数并改变市场潜力m不可变的假设,建立政府参与下的信息通信技术标准扩散模型(GP模型).基于Bass模型和GP模型分别对政府在技术标准扩散中有显著作用的韩国CDMA扩散进行分析,并通过经济检验和统计检验比较Bass模型和GP模型,发现GP模型在有政府参与的技术标准扩散的市场潜力分析上优于原始的Bass模型,通过实证分析得出政府行为能够对ICT技术标准市场潜力产生积极影响进而加速扩散的结论. 　　关键词:信息通信技术;标准扩散; Bass模型; 市场潜力;GP模型?? 　　中图分类号: C939 文献标识码:A 　　 　　ICT Standards Diffusion Model under Governments Participation 　　 WANG Bo1?k,HE Ming??sheng2 　　(1. School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150001, China;?? 　　 2. School of Social Development, East China Univ of Political Science and Law, Shanghai 201620, China) 　　Abstract: 　　 Government actions have direct and indirect effects on the information and communication technology (ICT) standards diffusion, and can significantly influenc the ICT standards for market potential. By optimizing the Bass model, importing the government non??constant influence coefficient m and changing the assumption that m can not be changed, the ICT standards diffusion model under Governments participation was established, which was called GP model for short. South Korean CDMA technical standard diffusion, largely supported by the government, was analyzed on the basis of both the Bass model and the GP model. Through a comparison of the economic tests and statistical tests, the GP model turns out to be superior in analyzing the market potential of the technical standards under the government involvement. The conclusion was obtained through the empirical analysis that government actions can have a positive impact on the market potential for ICT technical standards and can promote its diffusion.?? 　　Key words: the information and communication technology;standards diffusion; Bass model; market potential; GP model 　　 　　信息通信技术(ICT)标准扩散是指完成系统化重构的ICT技术创新成果在与一定的环境相互作用下[1],在扩散系统中随时间被各成员或组织采用,形成网络效应进而占领市场的过程[2].通过定性分析发现,政府行为通过直接和间接作用于信息通信技术标准扩散系统,对信息通信技术标准的市场潜力产生了重要影响.市场潜力是指在某一特定时期和特定条件下,市场对信息通信技术标准