基于空间计量模型医药制造业区域创新能力研究.docVIP

基于空间计量模型医药制造业区域创新能力研究 　　摘 要 目的：探索医药制造业创新能力在空间分布中的规律及价值。方法：基于空间计量分析原理，选取2010年的研发人员全时当量和研发经费内部支出作为解释变量，2010-2013年的新产品销售收入作为被解释变量，运用普通计量回归模型（OLS）、空间计量回归模型（空间滞后模型和空间误差模型），应用GeoDa和R软件，对中国医药制造业的研发投入与产出关系进行了研究。结果：医药制造业创新投入产出滞后1年，医药制造业各区域创新能力的全局Moran’s I系数有统计学意义；区域显示上海、江苏存在较高的创新能力和集聚效应，安徽、福建、黑龙江等空间相关性不强。结论：针对不同的区域选择性地加强研发经费的投入，充分发挥高创新能力省区的知识溢出效应，促进技术创新能力不足的省区发展，从而提高我国医药制造业创新能力。 　　关键词 空间计量模型 R语言 医药制造业 创新能力 　　中图分类号：F124.3 文献标识码：C 文章编号：1006-1533（2015）11-0054-03 　　ABSTRACT Objective： To explore the law and value of the innovation ability of pharmaceutical industry in spatial distribution. Methods： Based on the principle of spatial econometric analysis， full-time equivalent （FTE） of RD personnel and RD internal expenditure in 2010 were selected as explaining variables， and the revenues for the sales of new products during 2010-2013 were taken as explanatory variables. The relationship between R D input and output in Chinese pharmaceutical industry was investigated by using the common regression model （OLS）， the spatial econometric regression model （model and spatial error model of spatial lag） and applying GeoDa and R software. Results： There was 1 year lag between the input and output in pharmaceutical industry innovation and statistical significance in the global Moran I of ‘regional innovation of pharmaceutical industry. Region analysis showed that Shanghai and Jiangsu had a high innovation ability and the agglomeration effect while the spatial correlation in Anhui， Fujian， Heilongjiang and the others was not strong. Conclusion： The input of RD expenditures should be selectively strengthened and the effects of knowledge spillover in those provinces and regions with high innovation ability should be fully played so as to promote the development of province and regions with insufficient technology innovation and improve the innovation level of Chinese pharmaceutical industry. 　　KEY WORDS spatial econometric models； R programming language； pharmaceutical industry； innovat