城镇职工基本养老保险基金风险预警系统分析-analysis on risk early warning system of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers.docxVIP

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城镇职工基本养老保险基金风险预警系统分析-analysis on risk early warning system of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers.docx

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城镇职工基本养老保险基金风险预警系统分析-analysis on risk early warning system of basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers

Abstract This paper attempts to BP artificial neural network is introduced in the early warning of the risk of urban basic old-age insurance fund, in order to provide early warning support for urban basic old-age insurance fund risk through the system. We build urban basic old-age insurance fund risk warning system reads as follows: Firstly, according to the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers to establish and run the program, collection from the Fund, the Funds investment operations, the Fund benefits three ways to select the corresponding indicators established urban basic old-age insurance fund risk warning indicator system, and principal component analysis method to determine the weights of the indicators; followed, from 2001 to 2010, the urban basic old-age insurance fund historical sample data, the sample data pre-processing, the use of the processed data repeated training and testing the model, get fit and high risk early warning system. Finally, according to the risk early warning system to measure the risk level of the basic pension insurance fund in 2011 for urban workers in China, Chinas basic pension insurance fund sources of risk analysis according to the measurement results of the early warning system, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Keywords: urban basic old-age insurance; fund risk; early warning system; BP artificial neural network 目录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 第 1 章导论 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 1.1 问题提出及选题意义 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark2 1.1.1 问题提出 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark3 1.1.2 选题意义 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark4 1.2 国内外研究综述 2 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark5 1.2.1 国内研究综述 2 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark6 1.2.2 国外研究综述 4 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark7 1.3 研究方法与逻辑框架 5 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark8 1.3.1 研究方法 5 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark9 1.3.2 研究框架 5 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark10 1.4 创新点与不足 6 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark11 1.4.1 论文创新之处 6 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark12 1.4.2 论文不足之处 7 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark13 第 2 章养老保险基金风险预警相关理论 8 HYP