组合预测模型在物流需求预测及物流体系构建中的应用分析——以云南农产品物流为例-analysis on the application of combination forecasting model in logistics demand forecasting and logistics system construction —— taking yunnan agricultural products logistics as an e.docxVIP

Ab Abstract PAGE PAGE VI Abstract Logistics demand forecast is the foundation of logistics management. Microscopically, the projection of logistics needs is an important basis of the various departments of the enterprise (including logistics, marketing, production and financial department) to plan and control. From the macro perspective, the correct logistics demand forecasting is the premise for making the policy of logistics industry development. Any kind of prediction methods are based on certain assumptions, and any kind of assumptions can not cover the intricate relationships in the real world. In the prediction, if we take it for granted that the forecasting method because of the error compares greatly, this may cause a part of useful information lost. So academia proposed the concept of, which is combining different prediction models and making the best use of information provided by kinds forecasting methods to obtain the combination forecasting method according to an appropriate weighted average form. This paper offers the solutions of building Yunnan agricultural logistics system, which is applying the combination forecasting model based on Shapley Value Weight Redistribution to the Yunnan foreign trade data concerning in recent years ,avoiding a single prediction method ,which is held to be able to provide the inspiration for the development of Yunnans economic and agricultural. First, this paper introduces the background and significance of the topics, then discusses the research status and development of the logistics demand forecasting, combination forecasting model and logistics system of Yunnan agricultural products, points out the main content and method of the paper, and finally summarizes the innovation and deficiencies. In the theoretical part of the paper, the paper defines the concept and characteristics of the agricultural product logistics, agricultural logistics system. At the same time, comparisons are made to current situation of domest