组合预测模型在成都市房价中的应用分析-the application analysis of combination forecasting model in chengdu housing price.docxVIP

I IV 成都理工大学硕士学位论文 higher. If you think that a prediction method of forecasting error, put this kind of forecasting abandoned, this may result in loss of some useful information, a single forecast accuracy at a low point of the forecast. In order to build an effective data, the introduction of induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator, establish induction orderly a weighted average of combination forecast model. Select three error index :square error（SSE）、 Mean-square error（MSE）、Mean-square error percentage（MSPE）, calculated three single forecasting model of chengdu housing prices average prediction error and the weighted average induction and orderly combined forecasting error, One grey model GM (1,1), SSE=174180，MSE=41.7346， MSPE=0.0206 ； three -times exponential smoothing model SSE=325910 ， MSE=57.0889 ， MSPE=0.0209 ； unary linear regression model SSE=414440 ， MSE=64.3772 ， MSPE=0.0218 ； IOWA operator combination forecast model SSE=15686 ， MSE=12.5245 ， MSPE=0.0045. Combination of induced ordered weighted average of the three forecast error indicator values are significantly lower than the prediction model of three individual Chengdu index value of commercial housing price forecast error, show that the induced ordered weighted average combination forecasting model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Therefore, the applicability of the model is more powerful. According to IOWA combination forecasting model based calculated average price of commercial housing in 2010 was 6469.4 yuan in Chengdu. Keywords: House price Gray GM (1,1) three -times exponential smoothing unary linear regression combination forecast 独创性声明 本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的 研究成果。据我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其 他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得 成都理工大学 或其他教 育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何 贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示谢意。 学位论文作者签名：  年 月 日 学位论文版权使用授权书 本学位论文作者完全了解 成都理工大学 有关保留、使用学位论文的规定， 有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和磁盘，允许论文被查阅和 借阅。本人授权 成都理工大学 可以将学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数 据库进行检索，可以采