基于地面资料集合均方根滤波同化方案的京津冀暴雨模拟研究-气象学报.PDF

doi:10.11676/qxxb2019.008 气象学报 基于地面资料集合均方根滤波同化方案的京津冀暴雨模拟研究* 1,2 1 邵长亮 闵锦忠 SHAO Changliang1,2 MIN Jinzhong1 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京，210044 2.中国气象局气象探测中心，北京，100081 1.Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China 2.CMA Meteorological Observation Centre,Beijing 100081,China 2017-12-20 收稿, 2018-07-06 改回. 邵长亮，闵锦忠. 2019. 基于地面资料集合均方根滤波同化方案的京津冀暴雨模拟研究.气象学报，77 （待刊） Shao Changliang, Min Jinzhong. 2019. A study of the rainstorm in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on assimilation of surface AWS data using the Ensemble Square Root Filter. Acta Meteorologica Sinica , 77(in press)(in Chinese) Abstract For more efficient assimilation of surface Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, a further improvement based on the Ensemble Square Root Filter(EnSRF) is proposed to solve the impact of assimilation results caused by elevation difference between observation site and model surface. Potential temperature and dewpoint temperature Terrain Error of Representativeness (TER) are added into temperature and dewpoint temperature error of surface observation data assimilation in WRF-EnSRF system respectively, and a numerical simulation of a Heavy Rain in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2016 has been carried. Results show that the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), threat score(TS) and The first 13 hours elements prediction have been improved generally. As terrain error of representativeness(TER) added, RMSE of wind is improved in general, which of potential temperature and dewpoint temperature is unstable in the earlier stage, but improved in later stage, and TS of the first and the later 24 h accumulated rainfall are overall improved, compared with no TER added. So new scheme is able to reduce the impact of a