【毕业论文】概率统计模型在企业经济中的应用.docVIP

毕业论文 Application of probability and statistics model in enterprise in the economy Author: Fu Keqing Tutor: Liu Wanli Abstract With the globalization of economy, social development, the progress of science and technology, the rapid development of economy, mathematics foreconomics increasingly widespread infiltration in economic analysis.Application of probability and statistics has become increasingly widespread.Economists at home and abroad and sectors of the economy to be more aware of the importance and superiority to solve economic problems inprobability and mathematical statistics. However practice has proved,probability and statistics, is an effective tool for quantitative research on economic issues, provides a new means for economic forecasting and economic decision-making, it also helps to improve the management level and economic benefits Similarly, diversified economy, but also to the economic problems facing enterprises increasingly serious article first brief summary of probability and statistics, and then for different real-life economic issues facing businesses, using linear regression, principal component analysis, probabilistic models such as decision tree analysis to solve one by one, in order to achieve the enterprise to avoid risks, improve competitiveness and to derive maximum benefit purposes. Keywords: Probability and mathematical statistics, linear regression, principal component analysis, decision trees 目 录 1 引 言 1 2 企业中的经济预测问题 2 2.1 一元线性回归模型的基本原理 2 2.2 一元线性回归模型在企业经济预测中的应用 2 3 企业中的经济利润问题 4 3.1 数学期望原理简介 4 3.2 建立模型求解企业的最大利润问题 5 4 企业经济活动中的风险型决策问题 7 4.1 决策树模型的理论简介 7 4.2 决策树在企业风险型决策问题中的应用 7 5 企业的绩效评价问题 9 5.1主成分分析法基本思想与原理 9 5.2 主成分分析法在企业绩效评价中的应用 10 6 概率统计模型在企业经济问题研究中的重要性 14 总结： 15 致谢 16 参考文献： 17 1 引 言 随着社会的不断发展，概率统计的知识越来越重要，经济学的数学化已经成为不可否认的事实.我国的经济学界和经济部门越来越意识到用数学方法来解决经济问题的重要性，然而，实践已证明，概率统计是对经济问题进行量的研究的有效工具，为经济预测和经济决策提供了新的手段，这也有助于提高管理水平和经济效益. 概率统计模型在企业面临的一些