北京客运交通业碳排放影响因素研究-统计学专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 摘 要 2013年伊始，雾霾天气接连不断降临北京城，空气重度污染、高碳排放成为北京面 临的最急迫问题。随着经济的快速发展，北京能源环境问题更加突出，减排低碳发展已 成为全球性经济发展趋势的新问题。探究客运交通业碳排放影响因素对北京实现低碳交 通发展、建设低碳城市具有重要意义。 本文针对交通发展现状引入私家车保有量，建立北京总碳排放量的 STIRPAT 扩展模 型，基于碳排放总量的因素分解，分析客运交通业对北京碳排放总量的影响。通过对不 同客运方式碳排放量的差异性分析，测算不同客运方式对交通碳排放的贡献率，深入探 究客运交通业碳排放的影响因素，得出以下结论：1、私家车对北京客运交通碳排放量 的贡献率最大，私家车碳排放为影响城市交通碳排放量的主要因素,出租车其次。2、公 交优惠政策实施后，公共电汽车碳排放效率高的优势并未完全发挥。3、轨道交通线路 网趋向规模化在调整居民出行结构，抑制交通碳排放上初显成效，但地铁仍不能成为居 民出行的主要方式。4、道路总里程的增加并没有抑制单位道路面积碳排放的增加，相 反增加私家车出行比重，自行车出行比重持续下滑现状不容忽试。5、城市空间结构影 响着城市交通的需求分布以及交通方式的选择，进而影响客运交通业碳排放量。最后结 合北京道路建设、城市空间结构发展等政策分析城市发展政策对客运交通业碳排放量的 影响，得出低碳交通的发展战略与对策建议。 关键词 二氧化碳排放 STIRPAT 扩展模型 客运方式碳排放贡献率 交通政策 II II Abstract Abstract At the beginning of 2013, the haze weather continuously come to Beijing City, air pollution seriously, high carbon emissions has become the most urgent problems in Beijing. With the rapid development of economy, energy and environment problem in Beijing becomes more prominent, reduction of low carbon development has become a new problem in global economic trends. Research on the factors that affect the carbon emissions of Beijing passenger transport industry, low carbon traffic development, has great significance in the construction of low carbon city. This paper introduce the traffic status of car ownership and a total of eight variables, the establishment of Beijing total carbon emissions STIRPAT model, model demonstrates the effect of traffic industry development on carbon emissions in the positive direction, control of passenger transportation emissions of Beijing low carbon emission reduction has important practical significance. And then investigate the transportation factors of carbon emissions, difference analysis of different transport modes of carbon emissions, measuring different passenger traffic on the contribution rate of carbon emissions, draw the following conclusions: 1, the private car contribution to city traffic carbon emissions was the biggest, the private car carbon emissions growth change be