坝堤溃决风险多层次模糊综合评估方法研究-系统分析与集成专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract Protecting the security of the dam is a vital problem for the reasonable use of the water resources, so it is important and meaningful to research methods of assessing the safety of dam for which is related with the national economy and the people’s livelihood, and it is necessary to build a system to estimate the security risk of dams. The dam-break disaster risk is regarded as main researching object in this thesis. The theory and method, such as risk analysis, analytic hierarchy processing, fuzzy mathematics and so on, together with the knowledge of dam engineering, are introduced into the thesis, which performs relatively detailed study on method of comprehensive risk assessment, synthesis assessment structure system, method of measuring assessment index of the dam, and develop the system of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation for dam-break .The main contents are as follows. By the principle of selecting factors, correlation theory and criteria, the primary factors and sub-factors of the dam’s outburst are selected, and to build the fuzzy multistage indexes system of the dam-break disaster risk analysis. The standards for judging and the suitable subordinate functions can be determined, so the evaluation index system is established. According to the factors affected the dam risk are complicated and the standards for judging are fuzzy, the factors are classified in different types and different layers through the method of risk analysis. In the evaluation of dam risk, different factors reflect different status and importance make different contribution to the risk evaluation that is each factor has its own weight. Weights o the factors are determined through analytic hierarchy process. Then each factor risk degree will be got and the final result can be known by the method of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of dam-break disaster risk. Then, the total evaluation is made into the system of multi-level fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation fo