北京市房地产泡沫实证研究管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 - - II - Abstract The paper discusses the connotations of bubble and bubble economy in order to discover the connection with real estate bubble and understand the import of real estate bubble. Then the paper analyzes the base, the inherent and indirect reasons and the characters of real estate bubble and describes the running mechanism of the bubble. The paper enumerates the measure methods of real estate bubble and points out their shortcomings. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the possible results of real estate bubble of Beijing in advance. By analyzing and comparing the methods, the index system is determined according to the characteristics of bubble: the supply index, the demand index, and the venture index. And then the paper chooses the ratio of real estate investment to GDP as the supply index, the ratio of house price to a family’s earning a year as the demand index, the ratio of house price to house rent as the venture index. The writer works out the fiducial values of the indexes by mathematic models and comparing historical data to compute the value of real estate bubble. The values are respectively 2.19 and 2.31 in 2004, 2005. It is distinct that the values of real estate bubble are at danger. The last chapter indicates the factors of real estate bubble including macroscopically economic conditions, microcosmic economic conditions and systems. Because economic growth depends on investment; channels of investment are narrow; Olympic Games bring good anticipate for investors in 2008; the disadvantages of the tax and housing systems exist in Beijing; otherwise the market order isn’t perfect; venture and the conflict between supply and demand exist. As a result, so many investors squash in the real estate market and the house price becomes higher and higher. The measures must be taken such as improving house system and tax system, consummating correlative policies, perfecting real estate market order and co