东亚区域汇率协调机制研究-区域经济学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 2000 年，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者蒙代尔教授曾经预言在未来 10 年内将出现三 大货币区：欧元区、美元区和亚洲货币区，即“金融稳定性三岛”将成为未来国 际货币体系的基本构架。目前欧盟已形成了自己的货币区，北美贸易区的汇率协 调也在如火如荼地进行中。东亚金融危机以后，区域内的货币合作引起了各国的 高度重视，也取得了一定的成绩，但作为东亚货币合作核心的东亚区域汇率协调 进展缓慢，成果甚微。虽然在客观经济条件下，进行东亚区域汇率协调机制建设 是基本可行的，但由于东亚区域内缺乏有力的监督机制、区域内汇率安排多样化、 缺乏协调基础等，东亚区域汇率协调机制的建设任重且道远。 东亚区域汇率协调机制包括机制的目标、内涵、汇率协调模式的选择以及成 员选取等内容。区域汇率协调的模式有多种，不同模式有不同的优缺点，但相对 来说，货币篮模式可能更适合东亚目前的情况。东亚应该根据自身实际情况，选 择混合货币篮方案，分四个具体步骤来进行机制的建设：第一步，加强区域内的 汇率政策调整；第二步，建立次区域的钉住汇率制度；第三步，实现各个次区域 的货币一体化；最后逐步构建东亚固定汇率区，进而形成统一货币区。 东亚区域汇率协调的机制的建立可以防止区域内货币的竞争性贬值、降低区 域内贸易与投资成本以及抵御国际投资资本的冲击等。中国参与东亚区域汇率协 调机制有利于对外贸易的发展、宏观金融的稳定以及抵抗人民币升值压力，但也 会降低本国货币政策的独立性、增加人民币的管理成本等。作为区域内的大国， 中国应该以积极的态度参与东亚区域汇率协调机制的建设。 关键词： 东亚货币合作 汇率协调 协调机制 最优货币区 ABSTRACT In 2000, The Nobel economic prize winner Professor Mundell once predicated that three big monetary areas would appear in the future 10 years: An Euro area, US dollar area and the Asian monetary area, namely “Three Islands of Stability” will become the basic frame of the international currency system in the future. At present, European Union has formed its own monetary area, and the exchange rate coordination of North America trade area is in motion, After East Asia crisis, the monetary cooperation in East Asia has achieved much progress and accomplishment, As the core phase of East Asia Money, East Asia exchange rate coordination is lagged. Though it’s basically feasible to establish the mechanism of East Asia exchange rate coordination under the objective economic conditions, the task of establishing the mechanism of East Asia exchange rate coordination is rather tough, due to lots of obstacles in East Asia exchange rate coordination, including the absence of strong supervisory mechanism, diversification of regional exchange rate arrangement and the base of coordination, etc. The East Asia regional exchange rate coordination route refers to connotation, target, the exchange rate coordination route and the member selection, academicians have proposed many models of East As