金融周期与经济周期的联动关系研究.docVIP

金融周期与经济周期的联动关系研究 ——基于中国宏观经济数据 Research on the interaction between financial cycle and economic cycle -- Based on Chinas macroeconomic data 张超 任志宏 作者单位：张超，广东省社会科学院2016级硕士研究生Email：1025156734@ 任志宏，研究员，广东省社会科学院Email：rzh5678@126.com 邮寄地址:广州市天河区天河北路618号广东省社会科学院财政金融研究所 610635 金融周期与经济周期的联动关系研究 ——基于中国宏观经济数据 摘要：近年来，金融周期成为宏观调控关注的重要内容。本文基于我国2001-2017年的季度数据，选取信贷、金融杠杆、股票资产价格、房地产资产价格等核心金融变量指标，构建了中国金融周期指数。然后，在此为基础上，笔者从实证的视角探究了金融周期与经济周期的相互作用关系、传导机制以及影响效应。研究结果表明：相比于经济周期，金融周期具有持续时间更长、波动幅度更大的特征；金融周期不仅与经济周期密切联系，而且金融周期与经济周期的峰值对彼此周期的变化均具有显著的预测性；在金融周期与经济周期的互动过程中，资产价格机制发挥着极其关键的作用，资产价格周期的变化成为宏观经济金融系统波动的重要来源。基于以上结论，笔者从防范系统性风险的视角，提出了一些政策建议。 关键词：金融周期；经济周期；资产价格周期 Abstract：In recent years, the financial cycle has become an important part of macro-control concerns. Based on the quarterly data of China from 2001 to 2017, this paper selects the core financial variables such as credit, financial leverage, stock asset price and real estate asset price to construct the China financial cycle index. Then, based on this, the author analyses the interaction, transmission mechanism and influence effect between the financial cycle and the economic cycle from an empirical perspective. The results show that compared with the economic cycle, the financial cycle has the characteristics of longer duration and greater fluctuation; The financial cycle is not only closely related to the economic cycle, but also the peaks of the financial cycle and the economic cycle are significantly predictive of changes in each others cycle; In the process of interaction between the financial cycle and the economic cycle, the asset price mechanism plays an extremely crucial role, and the change of the asset price cycle becomes an important source of fluctuations in the macroeconomic and financial systems. Based on the above conclusions, the author puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspective of preventing systemic risks. Keyword：Financial cycle；Economic cycle；Asset price cycle 一、引言 2008